After I posted my thoughts on Egypt last night, I got an e-mail response from my friend Shashank Joshi, and with his permission I am reposting his thoughts here. Shashank has more source credibility than I do (you may have heard him discussing these questions on BBC Radio 4 among other places), and I think he makes some great points. Shashank writes:
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Regarding your blogpost on Egypt [and the assumption that violence will not escalate], I disagree. Yes, the regular army has said it won't fire, but:
There is the Republican Guard (tens of thousand strong, IIRC).
Your predictions are subject to the protests remaining static. Bets are off if they march to the palace and things escalate.
There may be splits within the army - it only takes a critical mass of tank commanders to suppress an escalation. The split is likely a senior-junior one, as Mubarak has cannily tied up the senior levels via Ahmed Shafiq and Omar Suleiman.
This is my amateur reading. I think Mubarak will be out, but the conduit is going to be American pressure on Egyptian leadership and senior commanders at colonel level.
The protests have so far not directly penetrated institutions of state power, and when they do, that's when the army's (sets of?) preferences will be revealed. Also, escalation by protesters may tarnish their cause and lower US support, if the regime can contain it in a low-intensity way. A mass mobbing is the worst-case for Mubarak, as that cannot be contained - but do they have the stomach for that?
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